Daily Positive thinking-

Its important to do some good daily, we spend days and weeks in daily routines and when time passes on we come to happy realization that times passed by, the concept of compounding implies to daily life as we focus on the investment world too. Its important to add little to ourselves informs of education, learning, hobbies, sport, languages. Over longer periods the basket of our holding is large. We are handling portfolios of our lives..its important to add to yourself. Idea is the hub and spoke model..we are the hub..the spokes are family, friends, career, people we meet, the society, the nation.

Double Top and the Bearish Cheat Rounded Top Arc on the current DJI (Dow Jones) 

The current hourly's for the DowJones Wallstreet 30 are forming the long awaited bearish signal which is pointing towards a bearish trend for the next couple of days to close the large gap made at the end of Dec'12 thanks to the fiscal  cliff saga and interestingly  timely remedy reached by the US senate. In fact have been chasing this bearish move for a while and also been deceived by the rounded top move as seen, with a crazy 140+ point bounce from above the 200 moving avg (EMA).

Am looking forward to formation of cool bearish (currently seen) cross overs on the 1H, 2H, 30min, 15min, 10min charts using the Slow Stochastics and the MACD. I feel bit confident of this market down move occurring which gives us a cool 200 point profit scope on the down side  for traders trading the Dow Futures / SPX500.

The Daily charts currently display the formation of a hanging man/ doji candle stick which makes me think we are headed towards closing the large gap mentioned above 13124. What made me post this was the urge to record this pattern and a execution mistake done ignoring the stochastic cross over upward using the slow stochastics while choosing to short at 13309 and being reprimanded by my boss but its a excellent learning which should help us great awesome profits...

cheers till then as I write quickly.

Market Outlook & Where to Invest in 2012

Guys its been a while well not exactly a while its been a year now as I write..lol !! well simple reason being laziness..well not exactly laziness..its my new trader job & the hunt for the better half mixed with unpaid salaries.. that kept me occupied well :)..

Ok quickly back to business bottomline bottomline bottomline....

Index : DowJones...I see 12,232 hasnt been broken for a while..we tried like thrice.... but frankly dont loose hope market noises already have been shouting that the US markets are a great buy..true or not lets have a look..my take for 2012 : Bullish ! keep your sights high for 14271 !!

Gold : Simple and straight look at 1423..yes buy gold cheap for whoever..urself or someone else..keep ur cash ready !

Silver: for the short term $24....long term $18...fundamentally consumption could keep it bullish especially Industrial..demand, growth are the drivers..speaking of emerging markets...guess slowdown is showing sights on India and China...overheating engines need to cool a bit to regain power to generate further thrust..looking at 1st quarter so actually..I'd keep loads of cash at every dip to buy these economies.

Crude Oil:  Set sights for $120 and full your tanks at $80 simple isnt it !

Indian Markets in 2012:  Expect cooling in the first quarter..and use this dip to see returns in the range of 40-100% depending on the sectors you choose I have mine in mind already ..need to raise some cash though :)

Rest keep it simple..dont get bogged down by people's noise (statement courtesy late Steve Jobs (RIP)) be objective..understand the crux of the movement....book your profits and minimize losses. Other major observation being..the markets have corrected over a larger period and are set for full thrust take off. The Double Dip blah blah seems passe' unless it actually happens and causes a market tank is still difficult.

If I missed to cover something else above and u are interested to know my view or discuss further please feel free to contact back. Appreciate your attention !

Wishing you a Very Happy & Prosperous New Year -2012

Whats the next level with Crude Oil ?

Ok so we are done with activity from the Fed QE2 was better than expected, the Fed has pumped in $600 bn which will be done in a phased manner $75bn a month..almost a cautious outlook. Activity all this while unexpected increases then decreases in Oil Stocks, Strengthening dollar, weakening dollar blah blah ....QE2 caused a weakened dollar hence rise in commodity prices, so we see that Oil was stuck in a range 80-84 and has now broken free, moved into a higher range..obvious reasons as mentioned above weakening dollar, explosion of intrinsic values across commodities..and welcome inflation too now with QE2. Result  gold prices at an all time high, narrow yields.

First it was the Feds Action with QE2, then some action with Japan, China, whats the new hype in town ? now with focus on Europe with the European Debt back in focus pressurizing the Euro. Euro was expected to touch $1.43 which it almost did..we are seeing a stronger dollar for this week which is having its effect on Oil Pricing. Past two days oil has traded in a range between $85-87.70. A mellow down with this news, focus on Jobs, Oil Stocks, further economic action will decide the fate ahead. Once oil cross $87.70 expect a higher range $87-$90. But again on the day trading side past two days have been jittery, yesterday we saw clear up moves during the European Session and an opposite effect during the American session.

Today has been nuts bulls are low in confidence and stop hunters are having all the fun they can. $86.80-$87.00 is a narrow range its trading for now. Will get back with some charts too.

Happy Trading till then.. !

Nifty approaches 5600 levels (Indian Stock Markets)

US Markets are closed for Labour Day and there was no significant economic news coming in on the wires. Markets across the world including India were buoyant considering positive jobs data during the non farm payrolls and indications that US would avoid any chances of a double dip recession. Further President Obama indicated efforts towards the middle class and supporting the small and medium businesses.

Coming to the Indian markets things are positive and the Nifty closed 5577 for the day. Well in line with my previous targets 5541 has been broken and we are headed for 5600.  I would consider the following levels in mind - 5547- 5567 - 5577 - 5595 - 5607

Any rally above these levels would lead to 5628 and 5645.

Stay green till then !

Brent Crude Oil Levels & Targets

So we are back to green, economic data's green again..hopes for recovery and avoiding a double dip recession from this picture. Today's jobless claim's will give further direction or take oil back to the hole. 76.10 is a strong support to watch for today.

On a bull run can expect oil to increase by a dollar upto 77.10 and further more during the day. Mean while short term targets should be 76.58 and 76.83. On the flip side below 76.10 can take it down to 75.50. Further you could refer my blog from yesterday here.

Rushing back to trade...

Till then..tc.

SnP CNX Nifty Price Targets (Indian Stock Markets)

The Indian Stock market has been on a run, buoyed with confidence and strong economic sentiment. Today was a strong rally supported by commodity and metal stocks, oil stocks too have been booming for now. Dollar took a beating to Euro though a weaker Rupee seems to be a strong reason for incoming flows.

Coming to levels 5467 is a strong support on the bull run further. For today 5488 was an expected top target on the Nifty and achieved positively. If the bull run continues tomorrow or this week, 5503-5513-5531 and 5541 will be the next highs in minds. Our bulls will have to gear up, though part of it depends on the incoming news this evening from the US markets. 5455 and 5450 need to kept in mind for a further downside move.

The RSI though quotes at 86.41 indicating bears may have to come in to rationalize the pricing.  The rid may start to get a bit rougher in the days ahead.

Till then happy trading ..!

Disclaimer - These views are personal and may not be considered as assured targets or levels. Do not hold me responsible for any losses. In case of profits a small thank you or appreciation would be highly appreciated.

Crude Oil - Brent Futures Daily Level

Current Price Target Levels for Brent are quite interesting..oil took a hit yesterday and crashed quite a bit. On a daily chart level has come back to its bottom again interms of retracement. Mass consensus would have been to rally oil further upwards. For now has retraced back in a double bottom mode since last evening.

Brent hit a high of  $76.74 and came crashing. For now it reads $75.48. If things are in favour you may consider the following levels upwards today - 75.52 - 75.74-75.86- 76.10.

On the flip side these are the expected levels 75.39-74.72-74.45. Keep in mind +/- 10 ticks as the squeezes and wics.

Meanwhile Construction, Manufacturing and  Vehicle Sales will play a major role in deciding the roller coaster rides been experienced since last week. Though Consumer Confidence data yesterday was a bit of a booster but something kept oil hanging for long.

Happy Trading till then !

Disclaimer - These views are personal and may not be considered as assured targets or levels. Do not hold me responsible for any losses. In case of profits a small thank you or appreciation would be highly appreciated.

Day as a trader

Good Question..whats the usual day of a trader...is it a 10 to 6 job..at times yes at times no..all about finding the right balance..point is if I was a trader self employed or working with a desk or a treasury or a Investment Bank..things would be different..frankly to tell you ..yet don't know whats it to be at a treasury or a IB..but yes for now as a self employed Day Trader I manage my money and that of my investors. Its a entrepreneurial setup. This means I am answerable to myself. I follow my discipline my set of rules, rules the market sets for me..in short "market is the king". I know everyone says that..at times I would feel I have mastered the market but that feeling stays till I start loosing after a series of profitable streaks.

One has to learn learn and learn...simple mantra..thats how you gain experience at the markets..every second teaches you....coming back to the point... I would start my day the moment I leave home watching CNBC to assess whats happening today hows the Asian Session coming along..the stock markets, currencies, gold, oil etc etc. its all connected undoubtedly...one's bullish others bearish..somethings confused and moving sideways.. can say the learning for the next day starts at the finish of the previous day too..say end of the European and beginning of the American session. I would see my charts look at the Fibonacci Levels, look at RSI's, day charts, try to assess where the markets would be moving the next day. 

"Price has history" this is true....prices reoccur in a bullish or bearish phase...as a trader you buy a price or you sell it to make profits. Once I have my price levels in mind..I study my charts for the Resistance and Support levels. "Resistance" is the upper most price of a trading range. "Support" is the base price of a trading  range. The market trades/fluctuates in a trading range for different price periods; seconds, minutes, hours, day, weeks etc. Once the Resistance level is broken that is price surpasses a higher price level..it moves into a new trading range and the resistance changes into a support level and you discover a new resistance. This is the phenomena of a bullish market. In case of a bearish market, market breaks the support level and moves into a new trading range to find a new support or base and your previous support becomes the resistance.

Once we understand this concept life doesn't become simple, we have to face our dear "stop hunters" or "squeezers", "pirates" people with might and power of volumes who "push" / "drive" the market against its natural momentum..majority traders would trade in a certain direction after the resistance or support but our dear hunters will trigger your stop losses to stop you out till the last penny. Its a different world..I understand there is a clout of traders who derive their bread and butter on stopping out other traders. A clear site of these stops is the "vic" seen on "candlestick" charts. Its the trading discipline that saves me from these hunters..I have learnt the art of staying away from these hunters..I can't boast that I stay away from them..at times they are lucky to catch me on the wrong foot. But yes I have figured a way to try and get the right entry points during my trades.

So..resistances, supports, stops...where's my profit and loss...simple I Sell at Resistance and Buy at Supports or I Buy at Supports and Sell at Resistances to generate profits....buy low sell high and sell high and buy low. Wrong entry points, misjudging, getting stopped out will force me to book losses. What's important is try increase the statistics, probabilities of trading rightly, doing it right no of times with max iterations to end a day in "Green". Having the consistency of trading with right entry and exit points assures you a "Green" Profitable day. Aaaah...I forget an important element.."Emotions", "Anger", "Greed", "Impatience". "Frustrations", "Confusion", "Unnecessary Baggage from the previous trading sessions". etc etc..stay strictly clear of these..have stay clear of them..have to trade with a clear concentrated light mind to be in the market be green. Again..difficult to finesse but all about self control fighting the enemy within. Yes we could be our best gurus, friends or worst enemies. After all its a best job but difficult job...we are with ourselves ..its us versus the markets. Its the intelligence of buying and selling right..again have to be a part of the market we are not smarter then the market..since end of the day what ever we trade...bonds, equities, currencies, metals, oil etc all have to be priced rightly..markets do not accept wrong prices.

Well enough of story telling have to get to the bottom line soon..just working on the script have things to share..from trading outrights to trading spreads, to hedging, technical analysis, the bond markets, indices, commodities and much more....till then...lets trade well.

Knowledge is Money

I grew up studying the funda (popular short form for fundamentals) that "Knowledge is Power" it was also the embedded as the main spirit of my school and lodged onto the school badge too. As I grew through school to college and through my MBA the spirit has transformed itself to be that Knowledge is surely Power but that power is measured in terms of money one makes. Application of Knowledge with the right ingredients makes you rich thats the mantra.

Since I would like to call myself a  trader and moreover since I have evolved as one by fate, interest, work, professional contacts  I would relate and discuss this in the world of money markets, world of investments, day trading, stock markets, bond, forex, commodities, futures etc etc... to put in the simplest form.

Question is why am I talking about knowledge as the key ingredient, answer to this is that as we hear about derivatives from the real instances, markets..I understand that knowledge is a derivative of "Awareness" once we understand a subject we enlighten ourselves or are aware of the subject in focus we tend to gain more knowledge. As a trader if one were to succeed I would stand by the fact that awareness is the key to money making. Since I have to be aware of the market, its forces, my peers their reactions, the markets reaction, the price movements and much more. I am in the process of improving my knowledge over every second, minute, day, week, month and years and this is that adds to my experience as a trader another key ingredient.

Coming back to the bottom line knowledge sums up to money if applied in the right way with the right experience. How do I still justify this..so lets speak in the lingo of a trader. What are we looking at ..below are the answers in brief...

• Instrument to be traded - Stocks, Index, Currency, Oil, Gold, Metals, Grains
• Forces affecting the price - Supply, Demand, Economic & Non Economic Events
• Trading System - OTC, ECN, through a broker, others.
• Market & Personal Sentiment - Opinion of peers, colleagues, media, yourself.
• Technical Analysis & Indicators

Being aware of the above is a key to building your knowledge base. Once these ingredients are in place we are game to the idea of money making. I know this still sounds bookish and lame we are in a fast world but the truth is direct or indirect we are exposed to information which builds our knowledge base and interest. The intention of my blog is to share and learn too, the knowledge I have gained over a period of time in this amazing field of trading.

Theres more to come..till then cheers !